Weekly Reputation Index Metrics

At the close of trading May 10, 2013, REPUVART and REPUVAR stood at 3443.31 and 2921.71 respectively. Over the past four weeks, the former has changed by 5.16%, while the latter has changed by 4.54%. The benchmark S&P500 Composite Index stood at 1422.98 (31 Dec 2001=1000) and has changed over the past four weeks by 2.82%.

Over the trailing twelve months, REPUVART and REPUVAR have, respectively, changed by 24.81% and 22.04% respectively; the S&P500 Composite Index has changed by 20.71%. Over the trailing 36 months, the REPUVART and REPUVAR have changed by 64.61% and 56.87% respectively; the S&P 500 Composite Index has changed by 41.35%.

Other interval changes in the magnitude of the indices are shown below.

Analysis

Another week of froth makes for good headlines for both the S&P500 and the pocket RepuSPX indices. The numbers are good, but there is a nagging concern that equity numbers are being driven more by capitulation – there is no return in debt – than it is for corporate fundamentals absent global fiscal stimulatory policies. The widening gap with non-indexed equities, and the low yield of junk debt, formerly known as high yield debt, are both consistent with this interpretation.

In a demonstration of typical  “errors in decision making” as termed by behavioral economists, rational expectations, which are central to assessments of reputational value, are taking a back seat to other competing drivers of stock price. RepuSpx, a portfolio that seeks algorithmically to find the best reputation-linked opportunities among the S&P500 constituent members, continues to benefit from this effect. It is ahead of the market index for the calendar year by 5.5% this week, a slip from last week. Its trailing twelve-month returns of 27.18% are beating the market by 6.87%.

RepuStars, plagued by a few companies that have greatly disappointed stakeholders, is still containing its losses. The greatest gains in the portfolio for the year are being reported by GameStop Corp (GME), now in its fourth week at the top ranking with a year-to-date return of 54.76%. Wellpoint Inc (WLP holds onto second place with returns of 28.00% and Bed Bath and Beyond (BBBY) returns to third place with a year-to-date return of 22.72%. These are three of the 19 firms identified by the RepuStars Variety algorithm at the start of the year as value opportunities.

As for those whose reputational value has not panned out so far, there’s been another shakeup. Fusion-IO, whose CEO quit this week, returns to last place; commodities in general are represented by Royal Gold Inc. (RGLD) at -31.12%, and scandal-plagued VeriFone Systems Inc. (PAY) is up a bit at -25.20%.

Side Note: A description of the portfolio constituents and historical returns data from December 31, 2001 can be obtained on request from Technology Option Capital, its manager. Click Here.

Background

The RepuStars® Variety Corporate Reputation Index calculated by S&P/Dow Jones Indexes is the first-ever composite equity index based on a quantitative value strategy informed by the Steel City Re Reputational Value Metrics. The metrics comprise non-financial indicators of reputational value (RVM) and ranking (CRR). The RepuStars Variety Index has two versions: a total returns index and a price index, whose ticker symbols are, respectively, REPUVART and REPUVAR.  Click here for real time quotes.

The RepuStars Variety Corporate Reputation Index tracks up to 57 company stocks that appear to be underpriced relative to  Steel City Re’s proprietary Reputational Value Metrics™, which track 7400 companies weekly. The principles behind measuring reputational value are described in the book, Reputation, Stock Price, and You: Why the market rewards some companies and punishes others (2012, Apress).

The RepuStars indices are reconstituted annually in the first week of January and posted by S&P/Dow Jones Indexes in the third week. The Indices were last reconstituted 20 Jan 2013.

Reputation, Risk and Finance

Reputation management through superior control of a company's intangible assets may be one of the best paths to value creation today. If it is not on your agenda, perhaps it should be. Here are several things you can do right now to start creating value for your organization:

1. Become better informed. Participate in our regular Mission Intangible Monthly Briefings held on the second Friday of every month, read the book, Reputation, Stock Price and You: Why the market rewards some companies and punishes others (2012)  or its predecessor, Mission: Intangible. Managing risk and reputation to create enterprise value (2010), available at the IAFS Store, specialty finance sector retailers, or other leading online book retailers. 
2. Become a member of the Intangible Asset Finance Society and engage.
3. Join our community on Linked-In and stay in the information flow.

Notices

Standard & Poor’s and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC (“S&P”), a subsidiary of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (“Dow Jones”). “RepuStars” and “Steel City Re” are registered trademarks of C. Huygens & Co. LLC. The method underpinning the RepuStars Variety indexes is subject to a pending patent assigned to C. Huygens & Co. LLC. S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones, S&P and their respective affiliates (“S&P Dow Jones Indices”) makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the ability of any index to accurately represent the asset class or market sector that it purports to represent and S&P Dow Jones Indices shall have no liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions of any index or the data included therein. Past performance of an index is not an indication of future results. All information provided by S&P Dow Jones Indices is general in nature and not tailored to the needs of any person, entity or group of persons. S&P Dow Jones Indices receives compensation in connection with licensing its indices to third parties. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Exposure to an asset class represented by an index is available through investable instruments offered by third parties that are based on that index. S&P Dow Jones Indices does not sponsor, endorse, sell, promote or manage any investment fund or other investment vehicle that seeks to provide an investment return based on the performance of any Index. Investment products based on the RepuStars Variety Corporate Reputation Indexes are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by Technology Option Capital, LLC, C. Huygens & Co, LLC, Steel City Re, LLC, or their respective affiliates and none of Technology Option Capital, LLC, C. Huygens & Co, LLC, Steel City Re, LLC and their respective affiliates make any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such products. Inclusion of a company in any of the indexes in this piece does not in any way reflect an opinion of Technology Option Capital, LLC, C. Huygens & Co, LLC, Steel City Re, LLC or any of their respective affiliates on the investment merits of such company. None of Technology Option Capital, LLC, C. Huygens & Co, LLC, Steel City Re, LLC or any of their respective affiliates is providing investment advice in connection with these indexes.

Briefing Friday 17 May at 10h00 ET

Program: Herbicides for Digital Forget-Me-Nots

To deal with the problem of people hearing or seeing things best not heard nor seen, the Men in Black used a neuralyzer to wipe the memory of a target or witness. The silicon of the world wide web is resilient, so more powerful tools are needed when inaccurate or biased information appears or when a reinvention is desired.

Joining our conversation are Shannon M. Wilkinson, Founder and CEO, Reputation Communications; and Michael D. Greenberg, Director of RAND’s Center for Corporate Ethics and Governance, and a member of the Society's Reputation Leadership Council. Jonathan Salem Baskin,  author of Tell the Truth, moderates. Learn more.

In an article titled, "Future hiring will be all about reputation," Janina Conboye write for the Financial Times, "The recruitment process will be about productivity... about reputation for delivery: can you deliver in a certain time and at what cost?”

Corporate reputation is an expectation of corporate behavior. Reputation value is the product of that expectation. This is the natural course of things according to Huygens. And according to the book, Reputation Stock Price and You: Why the market rewards some companies and punishes others. And according to Jonathan Salem Baskin, Managing Director of Consensiv, who wrote today for Forbes about PetroChina.

"The last two months of PR have not been kind to PetroChina . The company’s former chairman has been implicated in a murder and money laundering. A key team of execs resigned en masse. A giant facility has stayed shut-down by an earthquake and safety concerns, while the environmental risks of a new investment have prompted riots in the streets. Earnings are down. It’s a textbook case for a corporate reputation crisis. Only not the way you think, since the company’s reputation has stayed all but unaffected. The reasons why suggest that marketers at public companies should look at corporate reputation less as an idea, and instead measure it as a series of behaviors." The full article is a good read.

Here are the corresponding Steel City Re reputation metrics underpinning Mr. Baskin's quantitative observations. Note the following:

Top left, the historic RVM volatility, a measure of the volatility of PTR's reputational value, was very low. Mr. Baskin explains why. Now it is in the 98th percentile among the 52 peers in the integrated oil sector. The reputational value is at the median, notwithstanding all the bad press.

Top right, the current RVM volatility is approaching 5% suggesting that an increasing number of stakeholders are expecting that the status quo is unsustainable.

Weekly Reputation Index Metrics

At the close of trading May 3, 2013, REPUVART and REPUVAR stood at 3418.24 and 2903.56 respectively. Both of these value are all time highs. Over the past four weeks, the former has changed by 5.93%, while the latter has changed by 5.42%. The benchmark S&P500 Composite Index stood at 1406.19 (31 Dec 2001=1000) and has changed over the past four weeks by 3.94%.

Over the trailing twelve months, REPUVART and REPUVAR have, respectively, changed by 23.93% and 21.30% respectively; the S&P500 Composite Index has changed by 17.92%. Over the trailing 36 months, the REPUVART and REPUVAR have changed by 61.76% and 54.30% respectively; the S&P 500 Composite Index has changed by 37.56%.

Other interval changes in the magnitude of the indices are shown below.

Analysis

While both the broad market S&P/DJI-calculated RepuStars Variety Index (Ticker:REPUVAR) and the pocket RepuSPX are surging ahead, the overall market is, frankly, frothy. The Financial Times pointed out Friday, that job growth has been consistently positive but sluggish, the effects of sequestration are yet to be recognized in national accounts, and while participation in the labor force is overall positive, manufacturing – the employment option for the less skilled – is down.

“The jobs figures were better than expected, but if you like gloom, they still contain a case to be gloomy. The worst number in the report was a 0.4 per cent drop in private hours worked leading to a 0.2 per cent drop in private payrolls (hours worked x hourly incomes). Less payroll income = less money to spend = less demand = less job creation in the future. Another sign of fragility was the diffusion index, which measures how broadly job gains were spread across different industries, where 50 means that as many industries created jobs as cut them. That index fell from 61.7 in February, to 56.2 in March and now 53.9 in April – indicating that the spread of jobs growth is narrowing.”

In this setting, it is increasingly apparent that rational expectations, which are central to assessments of reputational value, are among a group of competing drivers of stock price. RepuSpx, a portfolio that seeks algorithmically to find the best reputation-linked opportunities among the S&P500 constituent members, continues to benefit from this effect. It moved ahead of the market index for the calendar year by more than 6.3% this week. Its trailing twelve-month returns of 23.08% are beating the market by 7.06%. RepuStars, plagued by scandal-ridden companies that have disappointed stakeholders, is still containing its losses. The greatest gains in the portfolio for the year are being reported by GameStop Corp (GME), now in its third week at the top ranking with a year-to-date return of 49.8%. Wellpoint Inc (WLP holds onto second place with returns of 24.51% and Lamar Advertising Co (LAMR) remains in third place with a return of 21.38%. These are three of the 19 firms identified by the RepuStars Variety algorithm at the start of the year as value opportunities.

As for those whose reputational value has not panned out so far, there’s been a shakeup. the greatest disappointments this year are Royal Gold Inc. (RGLD) at -31.51%, scandal-plagued VeriFone Systems Inc. (PAY) at -28.48%, and with the Euro-economy now being stimulated by the central bankers, the third worst performing company is now Walter Investment at -22.04%.

Side Note: A description of the portfolio constituents and historical returns data from December 31, 2001 can be obtained on request from Technology Option Capital, its manager. Click Here.

Background

The RepuStars® Variety Corporate Reputation Index calculated by S&P/Dow Jones Indexes is the first-ever composite equity index based on a quantitative value strategy informed by the Steel City Re Reputational Value Metrics. The metrics comprise non-financial indicators of reputational value (RVM) and ranking (CRR). The RepuStars Variety Index has two versions: a total returns index and a price index, whose ticker symbols are, respectively, REPUVART and REPUVAR.  Click here for real time quotes.

The RepuStars Variety Corporate Reputation Index tracks up to 57 company stocks that appear to be underpriced relative to  Steel City Re’s proprietary Reputational Value Metrics™, which track 7400 companies weekly. The principles behind measuring reputational value are described in the book, Reputation, Stock Price, and You: Why the market rewards some companies and punishes others (2012, Apress).

The RepuStars indices are reconstituted annually in the first week of January and posted by S&P/Dow Jones Indexes in the third week. The Indices were last reconstituted 20 Jan 2013.

Reputation, Risk and Finance

Reputation management through superior control of a company's intangible assets may be one of the best paths to value creation today. If it is not on your agenda, perhaps it should be. Here are several things you can do right now to start creating value for your organization:

1. Become better informed. Participate in our regular Mission Intangible Monthly Briefings held on the second Friday of every month, read the book, Reputation, Stock Price and You: Why the market rewards some companies and punishes others (2012)  or its predecessor, Mission: Intangible. Managing risk and reputation to create enterprise value (2010), available at the IAFS Store, specialty finance sector retailers, or other leading online book retailers. 
2. Become a member of the Intangible Asset Finance Society and engage.
3. Join our community on Linked-In and stay in the information flow.

Notices

Standard & Poor’s and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC (“S&P”), a subsidiary of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (“Dow Jones”). “RepuStars” and “Steel City Re” are registered trademarks of C. Huygens & Co. LLC. The method underpinning the RepuStars Variety indexes is subject to a pending patent assigned to C. Huygens & Co. LLC. S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones, S&P and their respective affiliates (“S&P Dow Jones Indices”) makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the ability of any index to accurately represent the asset class or market sector that it purports to represent and S&P Dow Jones Indices shall have no liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions of any index or the data included therein. Past performance of an index is not an indication of future results. All information provided by S&P Dow Jones Indices is general in nature and not tailored to the needs of any person, entity or group of persons. S&P Dow Jones Indices receives compensation in connection with licensing its indices to third parties. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Exposure to an asset class represented by an index is available through investable instruments offered by third parties that are based on that index. S&P Dow Jones Indices does not sponsor, endorse, sell, promote or manage any investment fund or other investment vehicle that seeks to provide an investment return based on the performance of any Index. Investment products based on the RepuStars Variety Corporate Reputation Indexes are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by Technology Option Capital, LLC, C. Huygens & Co, LLC, Steel City Re, LLC, or their respective affiliates and none of Technology Option Capital, LLC, C. Huygens & Co, LLC, Steel City Re, LLC and their respective affiliates make any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such products. Inclusion of a company in any of the indexes in this piece does not in any way reflect an opinion of Technology Option Capital, LLC, C. Huygens & Co, LLC, Steel City Re, LLC or any of their respective affiliates on the investment merits of such company. None of Technology Option Capital, LLC, C. Huygens & Co, LLC, Steel City Re, LLC or any of their respective affiliates is providing investment advice in connection with these indexes.

Briefing Friday 17 May at 10h00 ET

Program: Herbicides for Digital Forget-Me-Nots

To deal with the problem of people hearing or seeing things best not heard nor seen, the Men in Black used a neuralyzer to wipe the memory of a target or witness. The silicon of the world wide web is resilient, so more powerful tools are needed when inaccurate or biased information appears or when a reinvention is desired.

Joining our conversation are Shannon M. Wilkinson, Founder and CEO, Reputation Communications; and Michael D. Greenberg, Director of RAND’s Center for Corporate Ethics and Governance, and a member of the Society's Reputation Leadership Council. Jonathan Salem Baskin,  author of Tell the Truth, moderates. Learn more.

Apple Inc., rated AA-plus by Standard & Poor's Ratings Services which a notch below rival Microsoft's AAA, borrowed $17B at record low rates yesterday. Notwithstanding S&P's rating and misgivings of some equity investors, it borrowed $5.5B for 10 years at 2.415% which is comparable to Microsoft's cost last week of 2.413%. Overall, Apple sold $17B in bonds to a market that expressed an appetite for $50B of the company's notes.

Reputation is best valued through behavior. Apple is being offered credit at such low rates because the market expects to be repaid--the benefit of an excellent reputation in the credit market. "There was $52 billion worth of orders for the deal, making it one of the most hotly desired bond deals Wall Street has ever seen, said bankers at Deutsche Bank," reported the Wall Street Journal.

For a broader understanding of the relationship between expectations, stakeholder behavior, and value, read Reputation, Stock Price and You: Why the markets reward some companies and punish others. For an understanding how how measures of reputational value such as those calculated by Steel City Re can inform managerial decision making, visit Consensiv.

Consensiv, a consultancy, inaugurated today monthly publication of the Consensiv 50, the most reputable large companies in the world. The ranking is informed by Steel City Re's reputational metrics.

As Consensiv explains in their press release, "the first-ever ranking of global leadership in reputational value based on stakeholder behaviors with measurable financial consequences...provides a number of new perspectives on corporate governance."

(Links Updated 3 May 2013)

Link to press release.
Download link to Consensiv 50 report for May 2013.

Weekly Reputation Index Metrics

At the close of trading April 26, 2013, REPUVART and REPUVAR stood at 3314.24 and 2825.55 respectively. Over the past four weeks, the former has changed by 1.29%, while the latter has changed by 1.12%. The benchmark S&P500 Composite Index stood at 1378.16 (31 Dec 2001=1000) and has changed over the past four weeks by 0.83%.

Over the trailing twelve months, REPUVART and REPUVAR have, respectively, changed by 15.83% and 13.78% respectively; the S&P500 Composite Index has changed by 12.75%. Over the trailing 36 months, the REPUVART and REPUVAR have changed by 54.90% and 48.30% respectively; the S&P 500 Composite Index has changed by 33.67%.

Other interval changes in the magnitude of the indices are shown below.

Analysis

While the economic news is still mixed, actions of the central bankers continue to dominate the news. The net global effect on bond funds is such that even Norway’s oil-funded sovereign fund is abandoning credit due to the effects of western central banks’ money printing. As the Financial Times reports, “Norway’s oil fund has reduced its bond holdings to their lowest ever level…The fund held just 36.7 per cent of its $726bn assets in bonds at the end of the first quarter, the lowest proportion since it first received money in 1996. Its equity holdings were close to a record high, accounting for 62.4 per cent of the total.”

In this setting, it is increasingly apparent that rational expectations, which are central to assessments of reputational value, are among a group of competing drivers of stock price. RepuSpx, a portfolio that seeks algorithmically to find the best reputation-linked opportunities among the S&P500 constituent members, continues to benefit from this effect. It moved ahead of the market index for the calendar year by more than 3.4% this week. Its trailing twelve-month returns of 20.981% are beating the market by 7.96%. RepuStars, plagued by scandal-ridden companies that have disappointed stakeholders, is still containing its losses.

The greatest gains in the portfolio for the year are being reported by GameStop Corp (GME), now in its third week at the top ranking with a year-to-date return of 39.6%. Wellpoint Inc (WLP surged into second place with returns of 22.9% and Lamar Advertising Co (LAMR) slipped back to third place with a return of 18.43%. These are three of the 19 firms identified by the RepuStars Variety algorithm at the start of the year as value opportunities.

As for those whose reputational value has not panned out so far, the greatest disappointments this year are Royal Gold Inc. (RGLD) at -32.46%, scandal-plagued VeriFone Systems Inc. (PAY) at -31.66%, and France-based Compagnie Generale de Gephysqu Vrts SA (CGG) at -30.47%.

Side Note: A description of the portfolio constituents and historical returns data from December 31, 2001 can be obtained on request from Technology Option Capital, its manager. Click Here.

Background

The RepuStars® Variety Corporate Reputation Index calculated by S&P/Dow Jones Indexes is the first-ever composite equity index based on a quantitative value strategy informed by the Steel City Re Reputational Value Metrics. The metrics comprise non-financial indicators of reputational value (RVM) and ranking (CRR). The RepuStars Variety Index has two versions: a total returns index and a price index, whose ticker symbols are, respectively, REPUVART and REPUVAR.  Click here for real time quotes.

The RepuStars Variety Corporate Reputation Index tracks up to 57 company stocks that appear to be underpriced relative to  Steel City Re’s proprietary Reputational Value Metrics™, which track 7400 companies weekly. The principles behind measuring reputational value are described in the book, Reputation, Stock Price, and You: Why the market rewards some companies and punishes others (2012, Apress).

The RepuStars indices are reconstituted annually in the first week of January and posted by S&P/Dow Jones Indexes in the third week. The Indices were last reconstituted 20 Jan 2013.

Reputation, Risk and Finance

Reputation management through superior control of a company's intangible assets may be one of the best paths to value creation today. If it is not on your agenda, perhaps it should be. Here are several things you can do right now to start creating value for your organization:

1. Become better informed. Participate in our regular Mission Intangible Monthly Briefings held on the second Friday of every month, read the book, Reputation, Stock Price and You: Why the market rewards some companies and punishes others (2012)  or its predecessor, Mission: Intangible. Managing risk and reputation to create enterprise value (2010), available at the IAFS Store, specialty finance sector retailers, or other leading online book retailers. 
2. Become a member of the Intangible Asset Finance Society and engage.
3. Join our community on Linked-In and stay in the information flow.

Notices

Standard & Poor’s and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC (“S&P”), a subsidiary of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (“Dow Jones”). “RepuStars” and “Steel City Re” are registered trademarks of C. Huygens & Co. LLC. The method underpinning the RepuStars Variety indexes is subject to a pending patent assigned to C. Huygens & Co. LLC. S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones, S&P and their respective affiliates (“S&P Dow Jones Indices”) makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the ability of any index to accurately represent the asset class or market sector that it purports to represent and S&P Dow Jones Indices shall have no liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions of any index or the data included therein. Past performance of an index is not an indication of future results. All information provided by S&P Dow Jones Indices is general in nature and not tailored to the needs of any person, entity or group of persons. S&P Dow Jones Indices receives compensation in connection with licensing its indices to third parties. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Exposure to an asset class represented by an index is available through investable instruments offered by third parties that are based on that index. S&P Dow Jones Indices does not sponsor, endorse, sell, promote or manage any investment fund or other investment vehicle that seeks to provide an investment return based on the performance of any Index. Investment products based on the RepuStars Variety Corporate Reputation Indexes are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by Technology Option Capital, LLC, C. Huygens & Co, LLC, Steel City Re, LLC, or their respective affiliates and none of Technology Option Capital, LLC, C. Huygens & Co, LLC, Steel City Re, LLC and their respective affiliates make any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such products. Inclusion of a company in any of the indexes in this piece does not in any way reflect an opinion of Technology Option Capital, LLC, C. Huygens & Co, LLC, Steel City Re, LLC or any of their respective affiliates on the investment merits of such company. None of Technology Option Capital, LLC, C. Huygens & Co, LLC, Steel City Re, LLC or any of their respective affiliates is providing investment advice in connection with these indexes.

Legendary investor Warren Buffett advises to be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. For as Anatole France noted, "If fifty million people say a foolish thing, it is still a foolish thing." Then again, they could be right.

One way to hedge the risk of betting with the wrong team is to separate the people into those who may know more, and those who don't. The Steel City Reputational Value Metrics have established a good track record of flushing out the know-nothings, as evidence by the long-term returns of RepuStars, the reputation-linked index calculated by S&P/Dow Jones Indices (Ticker:REPUVAR).

Apple, Inc. (AAPL) is a great case in point. As a result of shareholder activity, equity value has plummeted. But do equity investors really know what is going on, or are they doing a foolish thing? The key summary measures based on the Steel City Re metrics and calculated by Consensiv, reputation value quality and reputation value independence, suggest that the non-investor stakeholders are confident in their expectations of the firm.


The more detailed metrics from Steel City Re give insight into those expectations. The company's reputation rank (CRR) relative to its peers in the 22-member computer processing and hardware sector is at the 95th percentile. The volatility of it reputational value metric, RVM, a non-financial measure of reputational value, is at the opposite end of the spectrum at the 5th percentile with a current value of under .5%. The company's stakeholders are exceedingly confidendent that there is a great deal of reputational value in this company. By a variety of other measures of the company's economic performance relative to its reputational metrics, it is -- as they say on Wall Street -- heavily oversold. Ah, but the year is only 30% through, and by the same metrics that indicate Apple's upside, the S&P500 is probably in a bubble. Stay tuned.